The study presented an MaxEnt-based assessment of current and future habitat suitability for invasive redbelly tilapia （Coptodon zillii） in China under changing climatic conditions. This freshwater species， native to West， East， and North Africa and parts of the Middle East， was modeled using occurrence records and eight environmental variables. The results showed that the final model demonstrated strong predictive performance （AUC=0.84， TSS=0.6）， identifying four dominant variables [mean temperature of coldest quarter （Bio11）， annual precipitation （Bio12）， temperature annual range （Bio7） and elevation]. Suitable habitats for both current and future environment were concentrated in southern provinces of China. Under three future climate scenarios （SSP1， SSP2， SSP5）， divergent trends were revealed: substantial habitat expansion under SSP5-8.5， moderate habitat increase under SSP2-4.5， and marked habitat contraction under SSP1-2.6. These findings align with global climate model projections， demonstrating that stringent emission controls （SSP1-2.6） can significantly reduce invasive habitat suitability. The study highlights climate policy as a potential tool for managing aquatic invasions in China’s freshwater ecosystems.