Interannual variation and forecasting of Ommastrephes bartramii migration gravity in the northwest Pacific Ocean
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Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University

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    Abstract:

    Ommastrephes bartramii is a commercially important cephalopod in the northwest Pacific Ocean, and as ecological opportunist, the spatial distribution of its stock is determined by marine environment. Using the relationship between the spatio-temporal variation of the migratory path and the oceanic environment to predict the spatial distribution of the squid resources is the research emphasis of fishery resources. It has great significance to practical production. According to the fishing production data from Chinese fishing fleet, combined with sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a) and Trans-Niño index (TNI) in the northwest Pacific Ocean during August to November in 2004 to 2015, We used hierarchical cluster analysis and neural network to analyze the relationship between the spatio-temporal variation of the migratory path and the oceanic environment to predict the change of the migratory path of the squid under the influence of the oceanic environment.The results showed that the proportion of production of the migratory gravity of the squid is significantly negatively correlated with the dispersion degree in October and November. There is a significant positive correlation between the change of the migratory gravity in the latitude and the TNI, which does not appear in the longitude.The model of predicting the spatio-temporal variation of the migratory path of the squid was established by using the neural network combined with sea surface temperature, salinity and chlorophyll concentration. The results of forecasting showed that during August to November, the migration gravity of squid shows the change trend of south-north-south in the latitude, and the change trend of west-east-west in the longitude.In August and September, the estimated proportion of production of the migratory gravity area was 64% and 68% respectively. In October and November, the prediction accuracy rate has obviously improved, and the estimated proportion of production of the migratory gravity area was 83% and 89% respectively.

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魏广恩,陈新军,李纲.西北太平洋柔鱼洄游重心年际变化及预测[J].上海海洋大学学报,2018,27(4):573-583.
WEI Guang'en, CHEN Xinjun, LI Gang. Interannual variation and forecasting of Ommastrephes bartramii migration gravity in the northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2018,27(4):573-583.

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History
  • Received:November 18,2017
  • Revised:April 03,2018
  • Adopted:May 21,2018
  • Online: July 16,2018
  • Published:
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