我国水产品需求预测研究
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现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(nycytx-50)


Research on aquatic product demand forecasting in China
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    摘要:

    我国水产品总需求包括城乡居民直接消费需求、加工水产品消费需求、净出口贸易需求以及在以上过程中的损耗减重。首先,基于统计年鉴数据,根据水产品供给来源和需求方式关系特征,分离出了我国水产品需求中的损耗减重部分量值及其在水产品总需求中的比例(损耗减重比例)。通过对水产品总需求中的城乡居民直接消费量、加工水产品需求量、贸易量以及损耗减重比例的时间序列数据建立灰色系统预测模型或线性预测模型或组合使用以上两模型,对其各自分别进行了中长期预测,进而得到了我国水产品总需求量的预测结果。由结果可知,“十二五”末我国水产品总需求量将达6 618.41万吨,预计到2030年,我国水产品总需求量将超过9千万吨,但不会高于一亿吨,为当前水平的2~3倍。

    Abstract:

    China's gross demand for aquatic products includes the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents, net export demand and the weight loss over the process above. Based on the data of the Statistical Yearbook, weight loss part of the value and its proportion of total demand (weight loss ratio) is isolated according to the features in the process of supply and demand of aquatic products. Long term prediction of the gross demand for aquatic products is obtained through building gray system predictive models or linear prediction models or combination models with the time series data of the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents, net export demand and the weight loss. From the results above, China’s total demand for aquatic products will reach 66.1841 million tons at the end of “The Twelfth Fiveyear plan”, more than 90 million tons in 2030, but not more than 100 million tons, 2-3 times of the current level.

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任爱景,杨正勇,戴亚娟,王方方.我国水产品需求预测研究[J].上海海洋大学学报,2012,21(1):145-150.
REN Ai-jing, YANG Zheng-yong, DAI Ya-juan, WANG Fang-fang. Research on aquatic product demand forecasting in China[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2012,21(1):145-150.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2012-01-09
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