China's gross demand for aquatic products includes the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents, net export demand and the weight loss over the process above. Based on the data of the Statistical Yearbook, weight loss part of the value and its proportion of total demand (weight loss ratio) is isolated according to the features in the process of supply and demand of aquatic products. Long term prediction of the gross demand for aquatic products is obtained through building gray system predictive models or linear prediction models or combination models with the time series data of the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents, net export demand and the weight loss. From the results above, China’s total demand for aquatic products will reach 66.1841 million tons at the end of “The Twelfth Fiveyear plan”, more than 90 million tons in 2030, but not more than 100 million tons, 2-3 times of the current level.
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任爱景,杨正勇,戴亚娟,王方方.我国水产品需求预测研究[J].上海海洋大学学报,2012,21(1):145-150. REN Ai-jing, YANG Zheng-yong, DAI Ya-juan, WANG Fang-fang. Research on aquatic product demand forecasting in China[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2012,21(1):145-150.