基于记忆增强补偿的LSTM氨氮浓度预测模型
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S 912;TP 183;X 703.1

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上海市农业科技创新项目(沪农科I2023006);上海市水产动物良种创制与绿色养殖协同创新中心项目(2021科技02-12)


Ammonia concentration prediction based on memory enhanced compensated LSTM model
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    摘要:

    在设施化循环水养殖中,为提升对氨氮浓度的预测精度与鲁棒性,提出一种记忆增强补偿LSTM模型(MA-LSTM-C)。该模型采用双向LSTM与Conv1D并行结构,以同时提取长、短序列特征,并嵌入一个记忆矩阵,通过多头注意力机制融合历史信息与当前输入;引入带可学习掩码的氨氮浓度区间注意力机制,强化氨氮关键浓度区间内的特征表达;最后通过动态误差补偿层,结合瞬时误差、平均误差及趋势误差对预测结果进行自适应修正。针对各传感器采集频率不同,采用基于因果约束的PCHIP插值对已有样本进行加密采样。实验结果表明,MA-LSTM-C相较于标准LSTM模型,MSE、RMSE、MAE和MAPE分别下降76.19%、51.09%、58.47%和55.42%,R2提升12.35%。消融实验进一步表明,引入物理机制后各评价指标平均提升约40%。该模型对氨氮浓度突变表现出更强的捕捉能力,为设施化循环水养殖氨氮浓度预测提供了一种有效的方法。

    Abstract:

    To improve the prediction accuracy and robustness of ammonia nitrogen concentration in recirculating aquaculture systems, this study introduces a memory-augmented compensation LSTM model (MA-LSTM-C). The model uses bidirectional LSTM and Conv1D parallel structure to extract long and short sequence features at the same time, and embedding a memory matrix to fuse historical information and current input through multi-head attention mechanism. An ammonia nitrogen concentration interval attention mechanism with a learnable mask was introduced to strengthen the feature expression in the key concentration interval of ammonia nitrogen. Finally, through the dynamic error compensation layer, the prediction results were adaptively corrected by combining the instantaneous error, the average error and the trend error. To accommodate varying sampling frequencies from different sensors, PCHIP interpolation based on causal constraints is utilized for interpolated sampling of existing samples. Experimental results show that compared with the standard LSTM model, the MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE of MA-LSTM-C are decreased by 76.19%, 51.09%, 58.47% and 55.42%, respectively, and the R2 is increased by 12.35%. Ablation experiments further reveal that incorporating physical mechanisms enhances each evaluation metric by approximately an average of 40%. This model demonstrates superior capability in capturing sudden fluctuations in ammonia nitrogen concentration and offers an effective approach for predicting ammonia nitrogen levels in recirculating aquaculture systems.

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张铮,张文辉.基于记忆增强补偿的LSTM氨氮浓度预测模型[J].上海海洋大学学报,2026,35(2):560-573.
ZHANG Zheng, ZHANG Wenhui. Ammonia concentration prediction based on memory enhanced compensated LSTM model[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2026,35(2):560-573.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-24
  • 出版日期: 2026-03-31
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